The hottest low stalemate of $60 or the new balanc

2022-08-08
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Low stalemate of $60 or new balance of iron ore price

low stalemate of $60 or new balance of iron ore price

China Construction Machinery Information

"From more than $70/ton at the beginning of the year to $60/ton now, the price of imported iron ore is looking for a new balance in the fluctuation. Insiders predict that the price of imported iron ore will continue to be deadlocked around $60/ton in the later stage, and it is not ruled out that it will fall below $50/ton again.

the latest China iron ore price index shows that as of June 30, the CIF price of 62% grade dry base fine ore of directly imported iron ore is 59.19 USD/ton, a month on month decrease of 0.87 USD/ton, a decrease of 1.45%; The average price of that month was 61.71 dollars/ton

from more than $70/ton at the beginning of the year to $60/ton today, the price of imported iron ore is looking for a new balance in the fluctuation. According to the latest iron ore import early warning monitoring report jointly released by China Iron and Steel Industry Association and China Minmetals chemical import and Export Chamber of Commerce, it is likely that the imported ore price will remain above $60 in June. However, with the deepening and expansion of the loss of the steel plant, the possibility of shutdown and overhaul cannot be ruled out. It is suggested that all parties concerned should be cautious, adjust inventory in time, and make a response plan

insiders predict that the price of imported iron ore will continue to be deadlocked around $60/ton in the later stage, and the possibility of falling below $50/ton cannot be ruled out

moderate adjustment

since this year, the fluctuation adjustment of iron ore prices has become the new normal. In the first five months of this year, the average price of imported iron ore in China was $63.48/ton, of which the average price in May was only $56.46/ton

the latest China iron ore price index shows that on June 30, China's iron ore price index was 217.48 points, down 2.67 points month on month, or 1.21%. Among them, the price index of domestic iron ore was 211.55 points, with a month on month decrease of 0.71 points or 0.33%; The price index of imported iron ore was 219.14 points, down 3.22 points month on month, or 1.45%

on the last day of June, the CIF price of 62% grade dry base fine ore of directly imported iron ore was 59.1. The stronger the material, the more tough it was $9/ton, a decrease of $0.87 per ton, or 1.45%; The average price of that month was 61.71 dollars/ton; The RMB tax inclusive price of 62% grade dry base fine ore of imported iron ore in spot trade was 476.90 yuan/ton, a month on month decrease of 4.41 yuan per ton, a decrease of 0.92%, and the average price of that month was 491.29 yuan/ton

in the same period, the CIF price of 58% grade dry base fine ore of directly imported iron ore was 53.37 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 0.93 US dollars per ton, a decrease of 1.71%; The average price of that month was 55.65 dollars/ton; The RMB tax inclusive price of 58% grade dry base fine ore of imported iron ore in spot trade was 436.12 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.13 yuan or 0.71% month on month, and the average price of that month was 448.37 yuan/ton. According to the Xinhua China iron ore price index, as of June 29, China's port iron ore inventory reached 78.01 million tons, a decrease of 820000 tons from the previous week (June 16-23), a month on month decrease of 1.04%

according to the analysis of insiders, the current iron ore market is tight and the price is low, so it is difficult for the supply and demand sides to break the deadlock, and the ore price will be adjusted moderately. In particular, under the background of low profits, most domestic steel enterprises have been unable to purchase "high-priced" iron ore, and instead purchase non mainstream or low-grade ore, resulting in the diversion of demand from some mainstream mines, further increasing the overall downward pressure on iron ore prices

vigilance against production reduction

the latest iron ore import warning report jointly issued by China Iron and Steel Association and China Minmetals chamber of Commerce believes that it is very difficult for new chemical fiber materials such as carbon fiber developed in China in recent years to pass its certification. The number of iron ore arriving in Hong Kong in May decreased significantly year-on-year. In addition to the impact of weather on the arrival of iron ore, the early iron ore price was extremely low, and some high-cost mines reduced production Factors such as shutdown also led to the reduction of iron ore arrival. In terms of iron ore demand, despite the decline in steel prices and the continuous compression of steel mill profits, the blast furnace operating rate of steel mills remains high, and the demand for iron ore is still strong. Overall, the imbalance between supply and demand has led to the recent shortage of spot supply of iron ore ports and the high price volatility

from the perspective of the global economic situation, the U.S. economy is gradually warming up, the recovery situation in the euro zone is still weak, and Greece is still the most difficult problem. In contrast to the domestic economy, the growth rate of real estate and manufacturing investment slowed down, and the growth rate of infrastructure investment also fell significantly from last month. The latest manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) of China in June was 50.2%, unchanged from the previous month and above the critical point. Among them, the PMI of large enterprises was 50.8%, a slight increase of 0.1 percentage points over the previous month, and continued to be higher than the critical point, which is a strong support for the stabilization of manufacturing PMI; The PMI of medium-sized enterprises was 50.2%, which was not only 0.2 percentage points lower than that of the previous month, but also higher than the critical point; The PMI of small enterprises was 47.5%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, and the contraction rate increased for two consecutive months. From the perspective of sub index, the production index, new order index and supplier delivery time index continue to be higher than the critical point, while the employee index and raw material inventory index are lower than the critical point

according to the report, judging from the shipment of foreign mines in June, the port inventory will not rebound significantly, and the imported ore price is likely to remain above $60. However, with the deepening of the loss and the expansion of the loss area of the steel plant, the possibility of shutdown and maintenance cannot be ruled out. It is suggested that all parties concerned should be cautious, pay attention to the changes in iron ore supply and demand, adjust inventory in time, and make a response plan. The latest ten day report on steel output of CISA shows that in early June, 150 member steel enterprises participating in the ten day report on production and operation of CISA produced 17.39 million tons of crude steel, 17.11 million tons of pig iron and 16.52 million tons of steel. In terms of daily output, the daily output of crude steel was 1.739 million tons, an increase of 39000 tons, an increase of 2.3%; Pig iron was 1.71 million tons, an increase of 36000 tons, an increase of 2.1%; 1.652 million tons of steel, with a reduction of 109500 tons, a decrease of 6.2%. As of early June, member steel enterprises have produced 284.26 million tons of crude steel, 281.51 million tons of pig iron and 27.07 million tons of steel this year; The average daily output reached 1.766 million tons, 1.749 million tons and 1.696 million tons

deadlocked

reviewing the price curve of imported iron ore since this year, "deadlocked" has become a keyword. On January 3, there were many experimental machines produced in China, and the CIF price of imported iron ore with 62% grade was 71.38 US dollars/ton. On April 10, it had dropped to 46.84 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 24.54 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 34% for stock speculation. Since April 10, the price of imported iron ore has rebounded sharply, and rebounded to $60.66/ton on May 12, with an increase of 29.5% in one month. However, since the end of May, the price of imported iron ore with 62% grade has been hovering around $60/ton. On May 29, the CIF price of imported iron ore with 62% grade was $60.4/ton. As of June 30, the CIF price of directly imported 62% grade iron ore was $59.19/ton

relevant people from the General Department of CISA believe that from the current market supply and demand relationship, the price of imported iron ore will continue to fluctuate around $60/ton in the later stage, and the possibility of falling below $50/ton again cannot be ruled out

from the perspective of the international market, the trend of loose iron ore supply has not changed. Taking the four major iron ore suppliers as an example, Rio Tinto expects the iron ore shipment volume to reach 360 million tons this year, 350 million tons in 2017 and 360 million tons in 2018. BHP Billiton still has a number of projects under construction and about to reach production capacity. It is expected that all production capacity will reach production capacity in 2017, with an estimated output of 250 million tons in 2015 and 270 million tons in 2016. With the operation of karajas n4ws mine with proved reserves of more than 1.3 billion tons, Vale's export volume of iron ore to China this year will also exceed that of last year

"from the follow-up production of international mining enterprises, under the condition of low cost and rich profits, continuing to expand production will be their main tone. It is conservatively estimated that the ore output of the four major mining enterprises in the whole year will increase by more than 100 million tons." The person said

while international ore giants have expanded their production, domestic iron ore production has declined. In the first four months of this year, China's iron ore output was only 384 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 51.54 million tons, a decrease of 11.8%, and the domestic iron ore equivalent to iron concentrate output was about 103 million tons. Based on the domestic and international situation, in the long run, the situation of oversupply in the global iron ore market will not change fundamentally

it is worth mentioning that the record low steel price level is also an important factor hindering the recovery of iron ore prices. Since this year, steel prices have continued to decline due to domestic overcapacity and sluggish market demand. At the end of April, China's steel composite price index (CSPI) was 73.19 points, a year-on-year decrease of 22.78 points, a decrease of more than 23%. The steel price index in May continued to decline. As of May 29, China's steel composite price index was only 70.32 points

the above people believe that under the current situation of losses in the main steel industry, steel production is difficult to increase significantly, and the trend of iron ore supply exceeding demand is difficult to reverse. From the perspective of cost transmission mechanism, the prices of raw fuels such as upstream iron ore can only continue to decline

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