Analysis on the market trend of glass futures in A

Analysis of the market trend of glass futures in August. In the middle and early August, with the price increase in the peak spot season and the steady recovery of the domestic economy, the main 1401 contract of glass futures rose slowly from the low point of 1350 yuan/ton, but failed to effectively break through the key resistance level of 1450 yuan/ton. We should pay attention. Since this week, market sentiment has quickly turned empty, and glass has plunged sharply to 1380 yuan/ton. The decline of industrial products this week is mainly due to peripheral panic, which is difficult to sustain the pressure on pure inner disc varieties such as glass. And the spot peak season market is still continuing, and the short-term trend of glass may be repeated. However, in the medium and long term, with the continuous expansion of new capacity during the year, the deterioration trend of the long-term fundamentals of the industry is becoming increasingly clear. The 1401 contract is long-term bearish, and the target price is about 1300 yuan/ton. September is the end of the Northern Technology Development: the peak spot season, which is the best entry time for long-term empty orders

on the demand side, the real estate industry, the main demand industry for glass, has improved significantly since July and August, but it is still unable to reverse the long-term deterioration of the industry fundamentals. The recovery of glass manufacturers' profits in the first half of the year stimulated manufacturers in North and central China to accelerate the expansion of production capacity. At the end of August, a total of 20 new production lines were added, plus 3 or 4 production lines waiting for ignition. The new capacity this year may be the highest in the same period in recent 7 years. Demand recovery is less than the massive expansion of production capacity, and the deterioration trend of long-term fundamentals is becoming increasingly clear

capacity pressure has begun to take shape in the current peak season. From the perspective of price, after the synchronous price increase in early August, the price trend of each production range began to differentiate in late August. The pressure of production capacity in East and South China is small, and the price continues to strengthen; And North China and central China and other new production capacity concentration areas began to reduce prices against the market. Inventory data also confirms our judgment on the strength of supply and demand. In the past three weeks, the de stocking of manufacturers has been blocked, and the weekly inventory has decreased by only one weight box, and the absolute volume has remained at the high point in recent years. In terms of sub regions, inventories in eastern and southern China also declined moderately, while inventories in northern and central China increased month on month. We know that as the delivery period approaches, the glass futures benchmark will converge to the lowest spot price. The current peak season demand can still support the current price. Once the North enters the off-season in October, the local spot pressure will double, and the future market price will converge to the price in the production area with the worst fundamentals

however, that is, glass on the 28th and 29th ● project name: key technology and industrial utilization of biological preparation of functional high molecular polyaminoic acids. After the detailed answers to the impact energy and impact toughness of industrial products continue to plummet, there is a high risk of continued short-term chasing. Although the long-term deterioration trend of industry fundamentals is becoming clear, after all, the spot price is still high supported by the peak season, and the above logic of futures price decline caused by the deterioration of fundamentals has not been fully formed. Although the 1309 contract in recent months showed two limits near the delivery date, after the delivery of the 1305 contract, the market has been familiar with the segmentation of the 1309 contract and the 1401 contract. With the 1309 contract entering the delivery month, the trading position has shrunk, and the delivery discount in recent months has little impact on the main force. The recent two-day glass plunge was mostly due to market concerns about the withdrawal of funds from emerging markets and geopolitical factors. However, as a pure inner dish variety, the external macro factors have limited influence on it, and cannot form a trend force. The trend downward market has not been fully opened, and the short-term price is still repeated