Analysis on the market trend of major agricultural

Market trend analysis of major agricultural machinery products in 2018

over the past year, China's agricultural machinery market has suddenly changed. The tractor market fell, the three major grain harvester markets "dived", and the traditional mainstream hot markets almost "fell". Corn is the grain crop with the largest sowing area and output in China, and the machine harvest level of corn is the lowest among the three major grain crops at present. Corn harvester has always been one of the products that have attracted much attention in the agricultural machinery market. In 2017, China's corn harvester market experienced an unprecedented sharp decline, causing pain for the entire industry. However, there is no lack of "warm current" in the agricultural machinery market. Under the interaction of various favorable factors, the rice transplanter market in 2017 showed the development characteristics of steady growth in market demand and continuous optimization of demand structure. So what kind of market situation will these two types of agricultural machinery products show in 2018

corn harvester will come out of the trough

this year, will China's corn harvester market continue its downward trend in recent years, or start the growth mode? To answer this question, it mainly depends on the market environment and endogenous demand

China's corn harvester market is facing many favorable environments this year

from the analysis of agricultural environment, three positive factors deserve attention. First, the demand for breeding feed has increased. Last year, the feed output increased rapidly year-on-year and the green feed harvester market increased rapidly. For example, the green feed harvester increased by more than 28% year-on-year. Second, the price of corn will also warm up due to the use of ethanol. Third, new changes have taken place in the adjustment of the planting structure in the "sickle Bay" region. After two consecutive years of substantial reduction in the planting area of corn, the pace of reduction has slowed down. These changes have provided support for the corn harvester market to get out of the trough

due to the expected reduction of corn production in China and the United States, the global corn inventory will hit a new low in nearly five years from 2017 to 2018, and the international corn price has rebounded. It is expected that the international corn price will fluctuate in a narrow range with the weather change in the later period, which makes it less likely that the domestic and international prices of corn will reappear "upside down". The recovery of corn prices will lay a solid foundation for the recovery of the corn harvester market

rigid demand is still relatively strong. According to statistics, China's corn machine yield reached 66.68% in 2016 and is expected to reach about 68% in 2017. It is the "depression" of the three major grain crop machine harvest levels. The relatively strong market rigid demand will bring growth hope to the corn harvester market this year

after experiencing "three consecutive falls", the corn harvester market has formed a market "depression". If the "three consecutive falls" of the corn harvester market in the past three years are regarded as market momentum, the release of market energy this year will become inevitable. Therefore, this year's corn harvester market will stop falling and return to temperature under the combined effect of rigid demand and renewal demand, which may become a reality. From the analysis of market renewal demand, China's corn harvester renewal cycle is about 4 years, and 2018 will enter the peak period of renewal

regional market pull. However, in seven years, the mainstream areas of Huang Huai Hai and Northern corn harvesters have "fallen", and these mainstream areas will usher in development opportunities driven by multiple positive factors such as agricultural machinery subsidies and market updates. At the same time, many enterprises began to pay attention to the corn harvester market in the southwest hilly region, which will inject strong impetus into the corn harvester market this year and even in the future

the drive of new products is also one of the important factors that should not be ignored in the market growth this year. It is a problem that should be paid attention to when installing the tensile testing machine that we share. The grain machine market has been brewing for many years, and its products are reaching maturity; The research and development of fresh corn harvester has also made great progress. These new products may provide new growth points for this year's corn harvester market from different aspects and bring good development opportunities

at the same time, this year's corn harvester market is also facing negative factors, such as the decline in investment income caused by insufficient investment confidence, the decline in purchasing power caused by the decline in grain prices, and the pace of planting structure adjustment has slowed down, but it is still in progress. These have increased market variables, which also determines that the expected high-speed growth will not repeat

based on the above analysis of positive and negative aspects, the author estimates that this year's corn harvester market may show the development characteristics of bottoming out and rebounding, stable and small progress. The annual demand may range from 45000 to 50000 units, with a year-on-year increase of 7% to 10%

the demand structure will be diversified. In the northeast region, large-scale and grain harvesters may become a new engine to drive market growth, and models with 4 rows or more may grow rapidly; In the Huang Huai Hai region, the demand may be diversified, with large machinery and small machinery, grain machine and ear picker coexisting

new development characteristics will appear in the regional market. It is expected that the Huang Huai Hai region, Jilin, Inner Mongolia and Anhui will still be the mainstream market of corn harvesters. After the "fall" of the whole line in 2017, these areas will recover their "lost land" this year and rebound to varying degrees

the competition in the corn harvester market in 2018 will still be very fierce, and will focus on the following aspects: first, price competition will still become the killer mace for most brands to seize market share; Second, the chaos of competition will continue, and the brand advantage may be further weakened; Third, product quality has become the focus of competition; Fourth, the pace of market integration will increase, so the jaw should be cleaned quickly, and some small enterprises will withdraw from the market; Fifth, many brands will compete fiercely around channels

in short, this year's corn harvester market may come out of the bottom and usher in a turnaround under the combined effect of many positive factors, such as rigidity and renewal demand, new products and new regional markets, preferential agricultural policies, especially subsidy policies

great downward pressure on rice transplanters

in 2017, the rice transplanter market rose against the trend, injecting vitality into the depressed agricultural machinery market in the transition period. Can the rice transplanter maintain its growth momentum in 2018? The author believes that the rice transplanter market released a strong negative signal in 2018, and the downward pressure on the market increased sharply

the rice transplanter market faces some unfavorable factors. Rice prices fell, corn prices hit the bottom and rebounded. The pace of "changing drought to water" slowed down and even stagnated in some regions. In 2017, the momentum of large-scale growth in the rice transplanter market due to the expansion of rice planting area will be weakened; The decline of grain prices, the reduction of consumer income and the impact on the purchasing power of farmers will directly affect the renewal cycle of the rice transplanter market, especially in Heilongjiang and Jiangsu markets with large stock. Weak regional drive. The market demand for rice transplanters is concentrated in regions. Northeast China and Inner Mongolia, which grew rapidly last year due to the "change from drought to water", may decline significantly this year with the decline of rice prices. Jiangsu market demand is in the process of rapid transformation from hand-held rice transplanters to riding rice transplanters, and the result of the transformation is the change of demand structure and the decline of demand. "Two lakes", "two cantons" and contributing their wisdom, enthusiasm and perseverance, the regional markets of Yun, GUI, Chuan, Gan and so on have been slow to start for many years, and the market share is relatively low, so it is difficult to expect how much support they can provide for this year's rice transplanter market; Analyzing the market trend of rice transplanter in recent years, it is not difficult to find that its growth cycle is generally 2-3 years, and the renewal cycle is generally 3-4 years. However, the rice transplanter market three years ago was at a low tide of sales, which determined that the renewal support is not large. In addition, the high-level and rapid growth in recent two years, the superimposed market "highland" has exerted great pressure on the market

however, the machine transplanting rate of rice in China is low, and the rigid demand is relatively strong. Some new markets, such as "two lakes", "two cantons" and other regions, may rise slightly. Affected by land circulation and large-scale operation, the mainstream markets such as Hei, Ji, Liao, Su, Wan and so on, the market support force of renewal demand still exists

based on the above analysis, the author makes the following judgment on the market trend of rice transplanter this year

market demand may decline. It is estimated that the annual sales volume may be more than 90000 units, with a year-on-year decrease of about 9%. This is mainly due to the comprehensive effect of multiple negative factors this year

the demand structure may accelerate the adjustment. The decline in the fundamentals of the rice transplanter market does not affect the growth of internal categories. If we say that the decline in the market of walking and unicycle rice transplanters is due to the strong impact of market negative factors, this will not change the adjustment of market demand structure. In recent years, with the acceleration of land circulation, a large number of new business organizations such as planting households, Agricultural Machinery Cooperatives and family farms have been established, and the efficient and high-speed riding rice transplanter market will also rise. It is expected that this year, the riding transplanter will continue the trend of previous years and grow steadily

regional demand rises and falls. In the past year, the market demand of Heilongjiang, Jilin and Liaoning has increased significantly, forming a market "highland". With the reduction of favorable factors, the market demand will decline. On the contrary, the markets of Jiangsu, Anhui, "two lakes", "two cantons" and Yunnan, Guizhou, Sichuan and Jiangxi may rise slightly, becoming an important force to stabilize the market and avoid a sharp decline